For many parents, gambling may seem like something that happens in casinos, sportsbooks, or lottery shops. But today's teenagers can encounter gambling-related content without ever entering a casino or intentionally searching for betting information.
A teenager might be watching an NBA trade discussion, scrolling through soccer highlights, following a favorite creator, watching a podcast, or seeing a video about a celebrity. Increasingly, some of these conversations can lead to prediction markets, where users put money behind predictions about real-world events.
Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have helped bring prediction markets into mainstream online culture, with markets involving sports, politics, entertainment, culture, and other events. The American Psychological Association recently examined this emerging form of gambling, noting that prediction markets are expanding gambling into areas beyond traditional sports betting while researchers are still working to understand their potential risks.
For parents, an important question is:
What happens when gambling starts to look less like gambling and more like entertainment?
Teen Gambling Is Already More Common Than Many Parents Realize
A 2026 Common Sense Media study surveyed 1,017 boys ages 11 to 17 across the United States. Researchers found that 36% of boys reported participating in gambling or gambling-related activities during the previous year. The percentage increased with age, from 32% among 11-year-olds to 49% among 17-year-olds.
The report, Betting on Boys: Understanding Gambling Among Adolescent Boys, examined activities including sports betting, fantasy sports, gaming-related gambling, loot boxes, and other activities involving money, chance, and rewards.
This means conversations about gambling may need to begin well before a teenager reaches legal gambling age.
Social Media Can Introduce Teens to Gambling Without Them Searching for It
One of the most significant findings from the Common Sense Media research involves social media.
Among boys who reported gambling, 45% had watched gambling videos or streams online. But most weren't necessarily looking for that content.
- 59% said gambling content simply started appearing in their feed.
- 24% said friends shared it with them.
- Only 14% said they had searched for gambling content or followed accounts that posted about it.
That distinction matters.
A teenager may not search for "sports betting" or "gambling." They may simply watch sports, gaming, celebrity, or influencer content and encounter gambling-related material along the way.
Gambling Content Is Associated With Different Spending Patterns
The Common Sense Media study also found an association between gambling-content exposure and spending.
Boys who watched gambling content sometimes or often reported average gambling spending of $72, compared with $33 among boys who did not watch gambling content.
They were also more likely to report spending more than they intended: 28% compared with 5% of nonviewers.
Among boys who watched gambling content, 41% said winning money was a motivation for gambling, compared with 18% of nonviewers. They were also more likely to cite friends gambling and influencers as motivations.
These findings show an association between exposure and gambling behavior; they do not prove that watching gambling videos causes teenagers to gamble or spend more.
That distinction is important when discussing adolescent mental health.
Peer Influence Can Be Powerful
Social media isn't the only influence.
Common Sense Media found that 84% of boys whose friends mostly gambled also reported gambling, compared with only 17% of boys who reported having no friends who gambled.
For parents, this doesn't necessarily mean that a teenager's friends are "the problem." Instead, it highlights why conversations about gambling should include questions about social pressure:
- Are your friends betting?
- Do people compete over who wins?
- Does anyone pressure you to participate?
- Do people talk about losses as much as they talk about wins?
- Are you expected to contribute money to participate?
Understanding a teenager's social environment can provide important context.
When Sports Knowledge Starts to Feel Like a Gambling Advantage
Sports can make gambling feel especially natural to teenagers who already follow teams and players closely.
A prediction about which player will be traded or which team will win may feel more like sports analysis than gambling. The APA's discussion of prediction-driven gambling describes a psychological phenomenon sometimes referred to as "pseudoskill"—the belief that personal knowledge or expertise gives someone an advantage in predicting an uncertain outcome.
For a teenager who follows basketball closely, betting on a player's next team may feel like:
"I know basketball. I know what's going to happen."
But knowing a sport well doesn't eliminate uncertainty.
Research Has Already Connected Sports Betting With Adolescent Gambling Risk
Prediction markets are relatively new, but researchers have studied adolescent sports-related gambling for years.
A peer-reviewed study involving 6,818 high school students examined sports-related gambling and risk for gambling problems. Researchers found that regular participation in sports betting, fantasy sports betting, and daily fantasy sports was associated with a greater risk of gambling problems among adolescents.
This study does not establish that Kalshi, Polymarket, or prediction markets cause gambling problems. Instead, it provides important background: researchers have already identified relationships between adolescent participation in sports-related wagering and gambling-related risk.
Young People Are Seeing Gambling Advertising on Social Media
Research also shows that gambling promotion can reach young audiences through social media.
A study of 111 young people ages 11 to 16 found that 55% recalled seeing gambling advertising on social media, while 36% recalled seeing gambling advertising on YouTube, particularly around sports and gaming videos.
More recent research has also examined celebrities and social-media influencers. A 2024 study found that young people's exposure to gambling marketing can influence gambling attitudes, perceptions of risk, and intentions to gamble.
Together, these findings highlight why media literacy matters. A teenager may recognize a casino advertisement as an advertisement but be less likely to recognize a sports podcast discussing odds, an influencer discussing a prediction, or a short-form video showing someone supposedly making money from predictions as gambling-related marketing.
What About Kalshi and Polymarket?
This is where the conversation becomes more complicated.
Kalshi and Polymarket operate in the relatively new world of prediction markets, where people trade contracts connected to future events.
The important point for parents is that prediction-market content can involve subjects teenagers already follow closely:
sports, celebrities, creators, entertainment, politics, and current events.
Researchers have also documented examples of prediction-market promotional content reaching social-media accounts registered to minors.
The Institute for Strategic Dialogue created accounts registered as 15-year-old users on TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram and examined gambling and prediction-market-related content. Its research found that a Kalshi influencer advertisement connected to the 2026 Academy Awards was accessible to an account registered as a minor on TikTok. Researchers also reported being able to view official Kalshi and Polymarket accounts on Instagram using a minor account.
This does not establish that teenagers are using these platforms.
It establishes something different:
Teenagers can potentially encounter prediction-market content even when they are not old enough to participate.
Why the Content May Not Look Like Gambling
A traditional gambling advertisement might say:
"Bet on tonight's game."
Prediction-market content can be framed differently:
- "Who will win?"
- "Will this player be traded?"
- "Will this celebrity attend?"
- "Which team will sign him?"
- "Will this happen before Friday?"
The conversation can begin as entertainment or sports analysis. The financial component can come later.
That makes media literacy particularly important.
Why "Easy Money" Messaging Deserves Attention
Another concern is the way gambling and prediction platforms can sometimes be presented as opportunities to make money.
Parents may encounter language such as:
- "Side hustle"
- "Easy money"
- "Money hack"
- "Make money from your phone"
- "I made $500 doing this"
- "You just have to know the right picks"
The problem with this type of messaging is that it can emphasize successful outcomes while minimizing losses.
A teenager may see someone celebrating a winning prediction without seeing the people who lost money making the same prediction.
Common Sense Media's research found that boys who watched gambling content were more likely to report winning money as a motivation for gambling.
What Warning Signs Should Parents Look For?
Parents should pay attention to changes in behavior rather than focusing exclusively on whether their teenager has downloaded a particular gambling or prediction-market app.
Potential warning signs include:
- Spending more money than intended
- Becoming preoccupied with winning or losing
- Repeatedly checking betting or prediction results
- Trying to win back money after losing
- Becoming secretive about financial activity
- Using a parent's card or account without permission
- Talking frequently about making money through betting
- Becoming distressed after losses
- Feeling pressure to participate because friends are doing it
- Increasing the amount of money involved
- Participating in multiple forms of gambling
Among boys who gambled, 27% reported at least one negative impact, including stress or conflict with parents, and 40% reported some degree of regret.
How Parents Can Talk About It
Parents don't need to know everything about every platform their teenager encounters.
Instead, try asking questions that encourage critical thinking:
- "What is this video actually asking people to do?"
- "Is this person making money from the prediction, from views, or from people using the platform?"
- "Are they showing people who lost money too?"
- "Would you still make the prediction if there were no money involved?"
- "What happens if you're wrong?"
- "Why do you think this keeps showing up in your feed?"
These questions can help teenagers recognize persuasive content without making the conversation feel like an interrogation.
What We Know—and What We Don't Know Yet
It is important not to overstate what current research tells us.
There is not yet enough research to conclude that Kalshi or Polymarket directly cause gambling addiction in teenagers. The APA notes that prediction markets are relatively new, and researchers are still studying how they differ psychologically from traditional forms of gambling.
However, there is already substantial research examining:
- Adolescent gambling
- Sports betting
- Gambling advertising
- Social-media gambling content
- Peer influence
- Influencer marketing
- Gambling-like gaming mechanics
- Early exposure to gambling
Together, these findings provide a reason for parents and mental health professionals to pay attention as prediction markets become more visible online.
Helping Teens Recognize When Entertainment Becomes Financial Risk
The goal isn't to make teenagers afraid of sports, video games, celebrities, or social media.
It's to help them recognize when entertainment and financial risk begin to overlap.
A sports prediction can be harmless. A conversation about an NBA trade can be harmless. Following a favorite creator can be harmless.
But when money becomes part of the prediction, teenagers need to understand the risks involved and recognize that knowledge, confidence, and excitement don't eliminate uncertainty.
For parents, the most useful question may not be:
"Is my teenager gambling?"
It may be:
"How is gambling being presented to my teenager—and why does it look appealing?"
Starting that conversation early can help teenagers develop the critical-thinking and financial-awareness skills they need to navigate an increasingly commercialized digital environment.
